Korea will hold the quarterfinals of the Asian Cup against Australia at 0:30 p.m. on the 3rd (Korea time) at Al-Zanub Stadium in Al-Wakra, Qatar. Korea, which is full of European stars such as Son Heung-min, Lee Kang-in, Kim Min-jae and Hwang Hee-chan, is dominant in terms of players’ individual skills. However, the fact that Korea is tactically drifting away from this tournament and that it has two days less time to recover its physical strength than Australia since the round of 16 is disadvantageous.
There are great concerns about advancing to the semifinals both inside and outside Korea, but the betting industry’s outlook is different. Sports Vivas, a sports data company, predicted that Korea has a 57.6% chance of advancing to the semifinals based on a statistical analysis of dividend movements by overseas betting companies and experts. It has a 42% probability of winning in regular time, a 7.5% probability of winning in overtime, and an 8.1% probability of winning in a shootout.
The most likely score was Korea’s 1-0 win, followed by a 1-1 draw and a 0-0 draw. This means that the team predicts the low score pattern.
Although Korea is said to be dominant, 57.6 percent is a slight gap. Converting this into the betting industry’s method of how many goals it has, it is only a 0.25 goal advantage. “It is so narrow that it is hard to guarantee that Korea will advance to the semifinals,” said Lee Won-chae, chief strategy officer at Sports Vivas. “Due to the nature of the tournament, where defeat leads to elimination, the prevailing view is that both countries will play cautiously.”
When the total score of the two teams combined is combined, it is defensive enough to be just 2.1 goals.
Sports Vivas is a Korean sports data start-up company based in the United States. Sports analysis using betting flow is also used for power analysis and serves to detect match-fixing by detecting that the betting flow is strange. In the last round of 16, Korea is most likely to win a 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia, and it was right by predicting that it will eventually reach the quarterfinals.
However, the evaluation of Korea can fluctuate immediately after the starting lineup is released. In the last round of 16, when Korea came out with a three-back instead of the four-back that it usually uses, the evaluation of various betting experts fell vertically, and the negative view of Korea became stronger. Again, he used a surprise tactic, but there is a possibility that it will look unreliable.